What This Team Starts From

Just a reference to the 2007-08 stats for the returning players, courtesy of Basketball Prospectus with some observations:

#    Player                       %Min   ORtg   Usage   Shot%   eFG%   OR%   DR%   FTR  

12  Kyle Singler              71.2     107.9     22.1      23.4       53.0      7.8     14.4     30.5

30 Jon Scheyer              70.5     127.6     17.4       17.6       53.5       3.9     11.3     52.1

  3 Greg Paulus              69.1      119.7     18.2      19.4       57.2       1.5       7.0     29.0

15  Gerald Henderson  65.3      104.5    24.0      24.2      50.5       6.0     13.6    45.9

42 Lance Thomas         43.4      98.6      13.9      10.7       50.5      10.4     8.9     75.3

  2 Nolan Smith             36.6     101.7     20.8      19.6       54.0      2.6      8.8     34.7

14 Dave McClure          19.6      91.7        9.0        7.8        43.8      6.5     16.8     21.9

55 Brian Zoubek           19.2      108.7    19.8       17.2       59.4      16.1    19.6     42.0

#   Player                      ARate  TORate  %Blcks  %Stls  FTA-FTM FGA-FGM(2) FGA-FGM(3)

12 Kyle Singler              9.1        18.7          2.3        2.0       82-106      108-198           40-103

20 Jon Scheyer             14.7       11.9          0.8        2.6      120-135       68-138            47-121

  3 Greg Paulus             19.9       17.2          0.2        2.8        67-81          35-83            83-196

15 Gerald Henderson  11.8        17.1          3.1         2.4      101-151       136-266           20-63 

42 Lance Thomas         2.7         21.4          1.8        1.4         38-73         49-97               0-0

 2  Nolan Smith            15.9       25.3          0.9        1.9         40-52         48-93             22-57

14 Dave McClure          6.8        24.5          2.4        2.2           2-7           14-30               0-2

55 Brian Zoubek           9.0        20.7          5.8        1.8        13-29          41-69               0-0

With DeMarcus Nelson (23.3% usage) gone, we should expect even greater alpha dog tendencies from Gerald Henderson.  An improved shooting performance would make him a dominant player, particularly considering his defensive potential.  Even with Jon Scheyer projected to start and Elliot Williams theoretically filling some of Nelson's minutes, neither of them (one a relatively low-usage, albeit incredibly efficient, spot shooter, the other a freshman) seems particularly likely to dominate the offense.  Kyle Singler also (and justifiably) looks to get a good share of the looks.

If Nolan Smith cuts down on turnovers, there is no reason why he should not earn the lion's share of time at point.  Paulus' stats are more suited for a 3 point specialist that can run an offense when required as opposed to the stereotypical point that dominates the ball and can be expected to initiate each set.  His assist rate has declined every year (along with, thankfully, his turnover rate).  It would be fantastic to see a Jonathan Wallace-type year out of him, and it would not require a great deal of statistical improvement from last year.

It comes as no surprise that Miles Plumlee may start the season as the first post option.  Lance Thomas, particularly post-injury just did not offer much on the offensive end, and Brian Zoubek can't seem to stay on the court.  Dave McClure's defense has to be really good.