Monday, November 10, 2008

Winning Ugly

Duke 80, Presbyterian 49  - (1-0)

Whether it was first game jitters or adjusting to a new point guard or whatever, that was a particularly sloppy game.  Missed shots, bad passes, getting blown by Presbyterian! players at every position, stagnant offensive sets, immobile defenders...it was just bad in a lot of ways that a 31 point win should not be bad.  The defensive results ended up being up to par, but the offense was more suited for a middle of the pack team in the Big South, not the #5 team in the country.

Here are the defensive numbers, in all their glory.  Please feel free to ask if you're not sure what's going on here; this is a defensive version of what Ken Pomeroy would call an HD Box Score.  We're also keeping track of deflections just out of curiosity.

#    Player                DRtg  Usage  Poss.   2FG     3FG   FT     DR%   Blk    Stl   TOf  Points
30  J. Scheyer         40.0    28.8     52       2-5       0-5    2-4     5.8     1.9     3.8   5.8      6 
12  K. Singler          60.0    20.0     50     2.5-6     0-1    1-3      16.0   2.0    4.0    4.0      6
3    G. Paulus          50.0    20.8     48       1-1        1-4    0-0     4.2      0      8.3   10.4     5
2    N. Smith           15.4      15.9      41     0.5-0.5   0-1    0-0     4.9      0     9.8   12.2      1
15  G. Henderson  66.7      18.3     41       1-2.5     1-3    0-0     2.4      0      2.4    4.9      5
20 E. Williams      100       15.0     40      0-1        0-1     6-6    2.5      0      2.5     2.5      6
42 L. Thomas         60        13.5     37       0-2        1-2    0-0     8.1     0      2.7     2.7      3
14 D. McClure       28.6     23.3     30       1-4        0-0   0-0    10.0    3.3   6.7    10.0    2
21 M. Plumlee       85.7     30.4     23       2.5-5     0-0   1-2      4.3     4.3    0       4.3     6
5   M. Pocius          40.0    13.2      19      0.5-0.5   0-0   0-0     5.3      0      0     10.5     1
55 B. Zoubek         36.3     45.8      12      0-4.5     0-0    2-2      0        0      0        0       2
13 O. Czyz              200       8.3      12       0-0       0-0    2-2       0        0      0        0       2
       Team               66.7       7.4       81       2-3        0-0   0-0     7.4      0      0      3.7      4 
Totals                    60.4         -        81      13-36     3-17  14-19  37.0   4.9  21.0  34.6   49
 
-"Team" is a stand in for wide open shots (most often due to good passing compensating for good rotation).  Basically if an uncontested shot is no one's fault, it's going to go under team.  This is also a repository for stats such as shot clock violations and OB rebounds.
-Yes, Zoubek fouled out in 12 possessions.  Oy.
-Assuming offenses game plan logically, we've been observing a tendency (in this game and the exhibitions) for opposing coaches to go after Scheyer.  So far, it hasn't been a problem; we'll see what happens when Duke starts to play guys that can consistently make open shots.
-With such a small sample (against such poor competition), there's no way to draw any reasonable conclusions at this point.
-I'd be more concerned about the low rebounding percentages if Presbyterian didn't turn the ball over more than 1 out of every 3 times they got it.
-Maybe this team really will miss DeMarcus.  Gerald did not seem to be the offensive initiator that would be expected of a projected lottery pick.
-The point guards (or Gerald, or Elliot, or Jon...whoever) must do a better job of getting into the paint to open up the offense for everyone else.

Offensive numbers up tomorrow, but with 80 points in roughly 81 (+/- 1) possessions, you can see where this is going.

Saturday, November 8, 2008

What are We Doing?

A few notes on what we intend to do with this blog:

After each game:
Offensive and defensive efficiency stats for the game, with commentary

For particularly big games (and as many other ones as time permits):
Possession-by-possession analysis of what Duke is doing on offense and defense (see Brian Cook's "Upon Further Review" for football games at mgoblog for an idea of what this might look like)

Weekly:
Aggregate offensive and defensive efficiency stats for the team and players

As warranted:
Graphs showing something cool we've noticed
Commentaries on whatever

As time permits:
Previews/what to expect from each game

Monday, October 20, 2008

What This Team Starts From

Just a reference to the 2007-08 stats for the returning players, courtesy of Basketball Prospectus with some observations:
#    Player                       %Min   ORtg   Usage   Shot%   eFG%   OR%   DR%   FTR  
12  Kyle Singler              71.2     107.9     22.1      23.4       53.0      7.8     14.4     30.5
30 Jon Scheyer              70.5     127.6     17.4       17.6       53.5       3.9     11.3     52.1
  3 Greg Paulus              69.1      119.7     18.2      19.4       57.2       1.5       7.0     29.0
15  Gerald Henderson  65.3      104.5    24.0      24.2      50.5       6.0     13.6    45.9
42 Lance Thomas         43.4      98.6      13.9      10.7       50.5      10.4     8.9     75.3
  2 Nolan Smith             36.6     101.7     20.8      19.6       54.0      2.6      8.8     34.7
14 Dave McClure          19.6      91.7        9.0        7.8        43.8      6.5     16.8     21.9
55 Brian Zoubek           19.2      108.7    19.8       17.2       59.4      16.1    19.6     42.0

#   Player                      ARate  TORate  %Blcks  %Stls  FTA-FTM FGA-FGM(2) FGA-FGM(3)
12 Kyle Singler              9.1        18.7          2.3        2.0       82-106      108-198           40-103
20 Jon Scheyer             14.7       11.9          0.8        2.6      120-135       68-138            47-121
  3 Greg Paulus             19.9       17.2          0.2        2.8        67-81          35-83            83-196
15 Gerald Henderson  11.8        17.1          3.1         2.4      101-151       136-266           20-63 
42 Lance Thomas         2.7         21.4          1.8        1.4         38-73         49-97               0-0
 2  Nolan Smith            15.9       25.3          0.9        1.9         40-52         48-93             22-57
14 Dave McClure          6.8        24.5          2.4        2.2           2-7           14-30               0-2
55 Brian Zoubek           9.0        20.7          5.8        1.8        13-29          41-69               0-0

With DeMarcus Nelson (23.3% usage) gone, we should expect even greater alpha dog tendencies from Gerald Henderson.  An improved shooting performance would make him a dominant player, particularly considering his defensive potential.  Even with Jon Scheyer projected to start and Elliot Williams theoretically filling some of Nelson's minutes, neither of them (one a relatively low-usage, albeit incredibly efficient, spot shooter, the other a freshman) seems particularly likely to dominate the offense.  Kyle Singler also (and justifiably) looks to get a good share of the looks.

If Nolan Smith cuts down on turnovers, there is no reason why he should not earn the lion's share of time at point.  Paulus' stats are more suited for a 3 point specialist that can run an offense when required as opposed to the stereotypical point that dominates the ball and can be expected to initiate each set.  His assist rate has declined every year (along with, thankfully, his turnover rate).  It would be fantastic to see a Jonathan Wallace-type year out of him, and it would not require a great deal of statistical improvement from last year.

It comes as no surprise that Miles Plumlee may start the season as the first post option.  Lance Thomas, particularly post-injury just did not offer much on the offensive end, and Brian Zoubek can't seem to stay on the court.  Dave McClure's defense has to be really good.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Welcome

This blog is dedicated to a tempo-free analysis of Duke Basketball; hopefully enlightened commentary on the rest of college basketball and sports in general, and hopelessly unenlightened commentary on anything else. We seek to provide a great deal of detail on the games themselves, including an effort to track individual defensive performance through purely objective means.